My Senate Page

The Big Board

Notes

1. No guarantee of accuracy is made by the above. I watch a lot of sites and will try to accurately update this.
2. Close races in purple and underlined
3. Incumbents in bold

If the Election were Today

• Some closes races, but the Democrtas would take two seats, Pennsylvania and Montana.

Analysis (under construction)

• Maryland: The democrats have a primary with Ben Cardin and Kweisi Mfume being the two serious candidates. Cardin is leading in the polls. The republican will be Michael Steele. The polling was tight between Steele and Cardin, but since (and I am not making this up) Steele, before a Jewish audience, compared stem cell research to experiments done by nazis on the Jews. Polling now has Cardin ahead by nine.
• Minnesota: The polling here has been tight between democrat Amy Klobuchar and republican Mark Kennedy. However, since Klobuchar's strongest primary opponent has dropped out she is likely to pick up momentum and this may eventually become a safe democratic seat.
• Missouri: Republican incumbent Jim Talent faces democrat Claire McCaskill. Polling has been up and down for both of them, so this is anybody's race. This is a chance for a democratic pickup.
• Montana: As of May 2005 this was a "solid republican" seat for incumbent Conrad Burns. However, since then, connections to Jack Abrhamoff have seriously hurt Burns and the race is generally considered a toss-up and a good chance for a democratic pick up by democrat John Morrison or John Tester.
• Nevada: Incumbent republican John Ensign is currently doing well against potential challengers. People like to talk about this race because Jimmy Carter's son, Jack Carter is running. However, Carter isn't even outpolling Oscar Goodman who isn't officially running yet.
• New Jersey: This race is near and dear to me since I live in New Jersey. As everyone who might be interested in this page would know, Jon Corzine gave up his senate seat to become governor of New Jersey. He appointed democrat Robert Menendez, who is the official incumbent. He faces repubican Tom Kean Jr. The race is currently up with Menendez ahead, but polling has not been consistent for Menendez and this is a toss up with a chance for a republican pick up. 3/9 Well, a new poll has Menendez up 42 to 37. What is significant is that the undecideds are all shifting to Menendez since the last such poll. So this one may not be as close as I previously predicted.
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• Rhode Island
• Tennessee
• Virginia
• Wisconsin:

• Arizona
• California
• Connecticut
• Delaware
• Florida: People are watching the race because it was supposed to be close with Democrat Ben Nelson was seen as a vulnerable incumbent in red Florida. But Katherine Harris, yes that Katherine Harris, his been a real stinkeroo for the Republicans. Now (3/4) with Harris caught up in Randy "Duke" Cunningham's illegal contribution scandal, it's probably all over for her. Even if she is cleared and the voters don't hold it against her, as of March she is trailing Nelson by eighteen points.
• Hawaii
• Indiana
• Maine
• Massachusetts
• Michigan
• Mississippi
• Nebraska
• New Mexico
• New York
• North Dakota
• Texas
• Utah
• Vermont
• Washington
• West Virginia
• Wyoming

Links

• Political Wire
• Rassmussen
• Wall Street Journal Senate Board
• Strategic Vision
• Quinnipiac University Polls
• Sabato's Senate Crystal Ball
• National Journal Senate Rankings
• Cook Political Senate Race Ratings

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